ANALYSIS
OF CORPORATE BANKRUPTCY PREDICTION
1. ABOUT
METHOD OLHSON
The purpose of this chapter
is to provide an understanding of how to conduct an analysis of corporate
bankruptcy prediction. Analysis of a company's chances of bankruptcy is
considered important for a company. This is analysis not only healthy companies
alone but the companies that are considered healthy. This analysis was
conducted as a follow preventive for healthy companies and is curative for
companies that are not healthy. This analysis includes the use of bankruptcy prediction
models which include: Unvariate models and Multivariate models.
To predict the chances
of bankruptcy of a company in terms of financial aspects that can be used
multivariate models using Olhson or logit models.
How about is Ohlson
method?
The
Ohlson method is analysis that the develop by James A. Ohlson. This
method was developed from the results of research conducted by Ohlson.
From research it, Ohlson
found nine (9) ratio is the best used to measure the level of company
bankcrupty.
1.
GNP for Total Asset (SIZE)
2.
Total Liabilities To Total Assets=TLTA
3.
Current Assets-Current Liabilities To
Total Assets = WCTA
4.
Current Liabilities To Current Assets = CLCA
5.
Net Income To Total Assets = NITA
6.
Funds From Operations To Total
Liabilities = FUTL
7.
One Net Income Was Negative For The Last
Two Years And Zero Otherwise = INTWO
8.
One Total Liabilities Exceed Total Asset
And Zero Otherwise = OENEG
9.
CHIN
2. EXPLANATION
ABOUT NINE RATIO
a) Log
word (in) total assets deflator GNP
(natural log of total assets to GNP implicit price deflator index = SIZE
EXAMPLE: Calculation
SIZE (sample PT GrazindoTbk)
Year
|
GNP Deflator*
|
Total Assets
|
SIZE
|
2011
|
29,556,683.81
|
10,204,495
|
2,90
|
2012
|
32,371,459.18
|
10,836,554
|
2,99
|
*data hipotesis
Per Capita Gross
National Product, 2007-2012 (Rupiahs)
b) (Total Liabilities To Total Assets = TLTA)
EXAMPLE: calculation TLTA (Sample of PT Grazindo Tbk)
Year
|
Total liabilities
|
Total assets
|
TLTA
|
2011
|
1,778,337
|
10,204,495
|
0,174
|
2012
|
2,094,469
|
10,836,554
|
0,193
|
c) current
assets-current liabilities to total assets
= WCTA
EXAMPLE: calculation WCTA (PT Grazindo Tbk sample)
Year
|
Total
current assets
|
Current
Liabilities
|
Total
assets
|
WCTA
|
2011
|
1,886,387
|
1,440,351
|
10,204,495
|
0,044
|
2012
|
1,880,127
|
1,644,178
|
10,836,554
|
0,022
|
d) current liabilities to current
assets = CLCA
EXAMPLE: calculation CLCA (PT Grazindo Tbk sample)
Year
|
CURRENT
liabilities
|
Total Current assets
|
CLCA
|
2011
|
1,440,351
|
1,886,387
|
0,764
|
2012
|
1,644,178
|
1,880,127
|
0,874
|
e) Net income to total assets = NITA
EXAMPLE: calculation NITA (PT Grazindo Tbk sample)
Year
|
Net
Income
|
Total Assets
|
NITA
|
2011
|
682,230
|
10,204,495
|
0,067
|
2012
|
390,583
|
10,836,554
|
0,036
|
f) Funds from operations to total liabilities = FUTL
EXAMPLE: calculation FUTL (PT Grazindo Tbk sample)
Year
|
Funds
from operations
|
Total
liabilities
|
NITA
|
2011
|
1,104,109
|
1,778,337
|
0,620
|
2012
|
233,475
|
2,094,469
|
0,111
|
g) One
if net income was negative for the last two years and zero otherwise = INTWO
based on the Income
Statement by PT Astra Agro Lestari Tbk showed that during the year 2011 and
2012, the company net profit, so that the value of the variable is 0 INTWO.
h) One
if total liabilities exceed total asset and zero otherwise = OENEG
Based on the balance of
PT Astra Agro Lestari Tbk showed that during the year 2011 and 2012, total
liabilities from total assets smaller, so the value of the variable OENEG is 0
i)
(Net profit this year- Net profit last year )
(|net profit this year|
+ |net profit last year|) = CHIN
EXAMPLE: calculation FUTL (Sampel PT Grazindo Tbk)
Year
|
Net
profit this year- Net profit last year
|
Net
profit this year+Net profit last year
|
CHIN
|
2012
|
390,583
|
390,583
|
-
|
2011
|
682,230
|
682,230
|
-
|
-291,647
|
1,072,813
|
-0,271
|
Based on the results of
a calculation of financial ratios each predictor variable as shown in the above
it can be calculated multivariate function of PT Astra Agro Lestari Tbk
Calculation of
Multivariate Functions Ohlson Model Year 2012
(PT Astra Agro Lestari
Tbk)
Variable
|
Koefisien of Variable Predictor
|
Variable
Predictor
Value
|
Multivariate (y)
|
Konstanta
|
-1,32
|
-1,32
|
|
SIZE
|
-0,407
|
2,99
|
-1,217
|
TLTA
|
6,03
|
0,193
|
1.164
|
WCTA
|
-1,43
|
0,022
|
-0,0315
|
CLCA
|
0,0757
|
1,114
|
0,843
|
NITA
|
-2,37
|
0,036
|
-0,085
|
FUTL
|
-1,83
|
0,111
|
-0,203
|
INTWO
|
0,285
|
0
|
0
|
OENEG
|
-1,72
|
0
|
0
|
CHIN
|
-0,521
|
-0,271
|
0.141
|
Total
|
-0,875
|
||
Furthermore,
based on multivariate function (y) can be calculated the probability of
bankruptcy PT Astra Agro Lestari Tbk as shown as follows:
Description:
P is the chance of
bankruptcy
E is the logarithm
value 2.718282
Y is a multivariate
function Based on the results of these calculations it can be concluded that PT Astra Agro Lestari Tbk in 2012 is not likely to go bankrupt because the probability is less than 3.8% which is only 0.3169%.
3. ASSESMENT CRITERIA
Cutt off point = 3.8%.
If P> 3.8% means the company likely to bankrupt
If P <or equal to
3.8% means the chances of a small bankrupt
The
All Data, Take From Obtained From Above Report Below
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